Russia’s latest diplomatic drive to reach common ground with Saudi Arabia on the Syrian conflict broke down on the persisting question of president Bashar Al Assad’s fate.
Following talks in Moscow two weeks ago, Saudi Arabian foreign minister Adel Al Jubeir made clear the kingdom would not coordinate with the Assad regime in the fight against ISIL, insisting that "there is no place for Assad in the future of Syria".
Speaking a week later following talks with Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif, Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s opposition to calls for Mr Al Assad’s removal as a condition for talks on a transitional process.
The role of Mr Al Assad has remained a constant sticking point between foreign powers in the bloody conflict. The calamitous consequences of the war, including over 240,000 dead, more than 9 million displaced and the emergence of terror groups such as ISIL and Jabhat Al Nusra, have so far failed to sway foreign powers to reach a compromise on the Syrian conflict.
"Nobody is on the same page, there is zero agreement on who should win and what should be exchanged," Joshua Landis, Syria expert and director of the Centre for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told The National.
Mr Lavrov’s remarks spurn speculation that Russia might consider supporting the removal of Mr Al Assad as part of a transitional deal.
Paul Saunders, executive director of the Centre for the National Interest in Washington, said the Kremlin’s continued support for Mr Al Assad is about “saving face” and “exercising Russian influence in Syria.
"Moscow would not have much leverage over Assad if the Russian government attempted to persuade him to step down," he told The National, adding that Mr Al Assad remaining in power for a transitional period would provide Russia with extra negotiating room.
Russia and Iran have become more dependent on Mr Al Assad as the conflict has dragged on, and as the threat posed by ISIL and other extremist groups grows, according to Mr Landis.
“The regime is in a very delicate state. If he were to leave, it might collapse entirely, therefore their (Russia and Iran) entire position would be wiped out,” Mr Landis said.
Any attempt by Russia or Iran to orchestrate an internal coup within the regime to remove Mr Al Assad, while retaining the state apparatus, would likely fail, according to both Mr Landis and Mr Saunders.
“A move like this could fragment what remains of the Syrian government leading to its collapse,” Mr Saunders said, a nightmare scenario Russia is keen to avoid.
“So long as the Assad regime endures, it prevents the Islamic State from consolidating its hold over the whole country,” Mr Saunders added.
Mr Landis believes Moscow and Tehran simply do not have the ability to force the kind of in-house regime-change many in the Syrian opposition hope can be done.
“In order to get Assad to step aside, you have to get the Alawite generals to stand up to him the way the military in Egypt did to Mubarak, point their guns at him, and say he has no choice. The Alawite generals are not going to do that,” he said.
Anas Joudeh, a member of the internal opposition based in Damascus, also expressed caution at any sudden attempt to remove Assad.
“Why does one think that the departure of Assad will end the war? Removing the president cannot be a condition for the transition, but it can be a result of it,” he said.
The basis of Mr Al Assad’s support does not only stem from the backing of Moscow and Tehran, but also the strong support the Syrian president still enjoys from the country’s military, political and business elites, Mr Landis said.
“The Sunni, urban elites still by and large support Assad, which is why he still controls all the major cities. It’s not just brutal force.”
The continuing support from elites, in addition to the large following he enjoys in regime-held areas, makes any attempt to remove Mr Al Assad all the more difficult.
He has also made sure no suitable alternatives will arise that might prompt Russia and Iran to rethink their support of his presidency.
Mr Landis noted the case of veteran opposition figure, Abdelaziz Al Khayyer, a prominent Alawite who was promptly arrested and disappeared by the regime in 2012 following successful trips to Russia and China.
“Assad showed them (Russia, Iran and China), it’s either me or nothing, and that’s been the Assad strategy, that’s why he wipes out all of his liberal opposition and he keeps his most loyal lieutenants divided.”
foreign.desk@thenational.ae
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The specs: 2017 Dodge Ram 1500 Laramie Longhorn
Price, base / as tested: Dhxxx
Engine: 5.7L V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 556Nm @ 3,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
MATCH INFO
Group B
Bayern Munich v Tottenham, midnight (Thursday)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
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The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Transmission: CVT auto
Power: 181bhp
Torque: 244Nm
Price: Dh122,900
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: HyperSpace
Started: 2020
Founders: Alexander Heller, Rama Allen and Desi Gonzalez
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Entertainment
Number of staff: 210
Investment raised: $75 million from investors including Galaxy Interactive, Riyadh Season, Sega Ventures and Apis Venture Partners
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Scoreline
Man Utd 2 Pogba 27', Martial 49'
Everton 1 Sigurdsson 77'
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
Honeymoonish
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
