Newsflash! The world didn’t end in 2023. Last February, I told you widely watched fears from rate hikes to inflation, Chinese growth to global recession and war were false – they wouldn’t sink global stocks.
And they didn’t. Even with multiple widespread worries added, global stocks soared 23.5 per cent in 2023.
Why? Markets pre-price fears. Real risks are unseen shocks.
I warned of some unlikely but real stealth torpedoes in my February column. They didn’t materialise either – but they weren’t defused.
Here is an update on risks, both ruses and real.
Last February’s column preceded bank failures and fears of “systemic” financial risks. Those began on March 10, when America’s Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed.
Signature Bank fell days later, with Swiss giant Credit Suisse next collapsing into rival UBS’s arms.
Many envisioned bank “contagion”. The KBW Regional Banking Index (tracking small US bank stocks) plunged. Now? It is up 6.7 per cent from pre-SVB levels, obliterating the fear.
European junior bank bond issuance, feared dead after Credit Suisse’s peculiar bailout, recovered.
Central bank fears? Fast Federal Reserve and European Central Bank hikes through summer didn’t kill stocks or gross domestic product.
Now many eye cuts. Maybe. But I have long said central banks are more reactor than causer, far weaker than most think. Their actions are unpredictable; their words worthless. Ignore them.
Despite the chatter, markets have. Global stocks rose with rates since this bull market’s October 2022 birth.
China’s “weak” economy? This year’s growth was a healthy 5.2 per cent – rejoining pre-Covid trendlines.
A global recession didn’t come, outside exceptions like Germany. Even that held no negative shock, given near-universal recession expectations entering 2023. Hence, Germany’s DAX hit December record highs.
Russia’s Ukraine invasion persisted throughout 2023 as an ugly fear … yet coldhearted stocks climbed.
They kept climbing after Hamas attacked Israel, renewing war fears. Many assumed a Middle East war would spike oil and tank stocks. No.
Fighting erupted amid a broader correction. Yet stocks bottomed in days, then surged to record highs. Israeli stocks now top prewar levels.
Oil is down despite Red Sea tanker attacks. This conflict lacks scope to interrupt commerce and hit stocks.
Middle Eastern war, though always tragic, happens too often to constitute a large and truly shocking market threat.
These ruse risks not only didn’t knock stocks, they also formed bricks in 2023’s “wall of worry”.
By keeping sentiment low, they fostered positive surprise – stock market jet fuel.
What about potential risks I detailed? Thankfully, none struck.
Geopolitically, while Ukraine and Gaza aren’t torpedoes, war between India and Pakistan – potentially involving China – could be. That hasn’t happened.
But Pakistan and Russia buddying up, possibly supporting the former’s Brics entry bid, could rile India anew. Stay alert. These three nuclear neighbours aren’t friendly.
I warned of a silent credit freeze – not from bank failures, but from loan growth falling below inflation rates, implying contracting credit.
This risked a deeper recession than markets had pre-priced. Keep watching.
US loan growth slowed from 12.2 per cent year on year at the start of 2023 to November’s 3.3 per cent. That nearly matches November inflation, suggesting vast cooling.
Behind that lending and inflation slowdown? Falling money supply. US M4 – the broadest money supply measure – fell 1 per cent year on year in October.
Normally, that might concern me. But it follows a peak rivalling Mt. Everest. So, it isn’t so abnormal.
US deposit’s interest rate rise – to 0.46 per cent in December from February’s 0.35 per cent – partly reflects increased bank funding competition.
If it escalates, lending’s profitability could tumble, further curtailing credit. Few watch this – so stay alert.
Overreaching cryptocurrency regulation was concerning. The world’s crypto crackdown included criminal charges for FTX’s founder and Binance’s chief executive.
Overreaching cryptocurrency regulation was concerning. But sweeping regulation reaching beyond crypto into ancillary assets hasn’t happened
Ken Fisher,
founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer, Fisher Investments
But sweeping regulation reaching beyond crypto into ancillary assets hasn’t happened. It still may.
Then came a new regulatory risk: artificial intelligence. Excessive rules towards it could similarly stymie innovation.
The EU’s new package looks navigable for Big Tech. But talk abounds of more globally. Stay tuned.
As always, my main fear is something huge nobody foresees – a true wallop. To monitor for that, clear your mind of today’s events.
Recency bias – the tendency to overrate or use recent events to forecast – blinds.
Many mistakenly think an endless search for “the next” Ukraine, inflation fuse or SVB is forward looking. No. They reprise yesterday’s fears – fighting the last war.
Free yourself from this psychological trap. Weigh potential new events in the next three to 30 months, not those from the last three to 30.
Watch for stealth risks – don’t fret about widely watched, false fears – which as 2023 revealed are everywhere.
Next month, I’ll give you my 2024 forecast. Stay tuned.
Ken Fisher is the founder, executive chairman and co-chief investment officer of Fisher Investments, a global investment adviser with $200 billion of assets under management.
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What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
The biog
Name: Abeer Al Bah
Born: 1972
Husband: Emirati lawyer Salem Bin Sahoo, since 1992
Children: Soud, born 1993, lawyer; Obaid, born 1994, deceased; four other boys and one girl, three months old
Education: BA in Elementary Education, worked for five years in a Dubai school
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
Common OCD symptoms and how they manifest
Checking: the obsession or thoughts focus on some harm coming from things not being as they should, which usually centre around the theme of safety. For example, the obsession is “the building will burn down”, therefore the compulsion is checking that the oven is switched off.
Contamination: the obsession is focused on the presence of germs, dirt or harmful bacteria and how this will impact the person and/or their loved ones. For example, the obsession is “the floor is dirty; me and my family will get sick and die”, the compulsion is repetitive cleaning.
Orderliness: the obsession is a fear of sitting with uncomfortable feelings, or to prevent harm coming to oneself or others. Objectively there appears to be no logical link between the obsession and compulsion. For example,” I won’t feel right if the jars aren’t lined up” or “harm will come to my family if I don’t line up all the jars”, so the compulsion is therefore lining up the jars.
Intrusive thoughts: the intrusive thought is usually highly distressing and repetitive. Common examples may include thoughts of perpetrating violence towards others, harming others, or questions over one’s character or deeds, usually in conflict with the person’s true values. An example would be: “I think I might hurt my family”, which in turn leads to the compulsion of avoiding social gatherings.
Hoarding: the intrusive thought is the overvaluing of objects or possessions, while the compulsion is stashing or hoarding these items and refusing to let them go. For example, “this newspaper may come in useful one day”, therefore, the compulsion is hoarding newspapers instead of discarding them the next day.
Source: Dr Robert Chandler, clinical psychologist at Lighthouse Arabia
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MATCH INFO
Chelsea 3 (Abraham 11', 17', 74')
Luton Town 1 (Clark 30')
Man of the match Abraham (Chelsea)
Banned items
Dubai Police has also issued a list of banned items at the ground on Sunday. These include:
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Political flags or banners
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Bikes, skateboards or scooters
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
