New long-range missiles battering Ukraine and Russia. Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats. Ballistics may cease in Lebanon, but continue in Gaza. Many worry a wider European war or Iran’s re-engagement threaten this bull market.
No. Markets have already proven they can shrug off these conflicts. My 2025 forecast is still cooking, but these wars aren’t reason to fear a bear market.
Let me explain. Bear markets form two ways: on top of the “wall of worry” in euphoria – when super-high expectations make markets susceptible to any material new negative – or when a new huge, multi-trillion dollar negative surprise wallops us.
Today’s regional wars are neither. They weigh on sentiment, keeping euphoria at bay – and aren’t wallops. They are horrendous. But they are no surprises.
Russia’s war with Ukraine is nearly three years old. Israel’s most recent salvo against Hamas started more than a year ago, with worries over it spreading to Lebanon and Iran bubbling the whole time.
There is nothing on either front stocks haven’t weighed. Markets dissected both … and continued clocking record highs. They priced the potential cost of it all and moved on.
War is a terrible human tragedy, always. Our society rightly hates and laments destroyed lives and property.
But stocks are unemotional – heartless. They simply fathom the economic cost. Will a conflict affect a large enough swath of the global economy to erase a few trillion dollars’ worth of gross domestic product? If not wallop-sized, the conflict isn’t bear market fuel.
There are – sadly – abundant examples. The Korean War. The six-day war of 1967. Iran-Iraq. The Bosnian war of the 1990s that erupted in Europe’s long-feared “powder keg”. Iraq in 1991 and 2003. Syria in the mid-2010s. Russia’s 2014 seizure of Ukraine’s Crimean territory.
All stoked fear. None triggered a bear market. Some drove volatility – usually before conflict started. But that typically passed when fighting began. Stocks hate the uncertainty mounting tensions bring more than regional conflict itself. Hence, the age-old market adage: “Sell on the fear; buy on the bullets.”
Historically, only world wars have swayed stocks materially. Early era inaccurate data suggest the First World War had a nasty bear market bite. Better S&P 500 and FTSE all-share data show the Second World War's outbreak in Europe caused a brutal bear market.
But these are the only two times war and war alone was a bear market’s proximate cause. And why? Because they hugely disrupted the global economy.
Perhaps 2022 looks like a counterpoint. Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine that February, early in the January 3 to October 12 bear market. But fighting alone didn’t cause stocks to decline.
Rather, it was one of many fears stinging investors like a swarm of bees. There was the fear of sanctions, Covid’s lingering supply chain disruptions, central banks facing interest rate hikes and European energy shortage fears that pre-dated Ukraine fighting. All took turns stinging again and again, cycling in and out multiple times.
How do you know the swarm of morphing fears, and not the war itself, caused the bear market? Simple: The stocks told us.
There was no peace when the new bull market began that October 13. But stocks rallied through to the end of 2022, 2023 and now 2024. This happened even as both sides dug in, casualties mounted and cities were levelled.
The cold truth is that Ukraine is just 0.16 per cent of global GDP – nowhere near enough to render a recession in a global GDP of over $110 trillion.
Israel’s war with Hamas shows this, too. Here, stocks followed their normal pattern, wobbling in the run-up to fighting as uncertainty surged, then moving on as war broke out and its limited scope became clear.
We saw, quickly and clearly, fighting stayed local, confined to tiny slivers of world GDP. Natural gas supply disruptions were short. After a drop in the fourth quarter of 2023, Israel’s GDP rebounded. Markets rightly rallied.
Stocks move most on the gap between expectations and subsequent realities. Regional conflict lowers expectations, widening the gap – creating more bullish positive surprise as things don’t go as badly as many feared.
Twice this year, Israel traded fire with Iran, stoking fears of major, potentially global escalation. But fears proved false and stocks rallied promptly.
The Houthi militia’s attacks on Red Sea oil tankers roiled sentiment, sparking fear of 2022-style supply disruptions. But these too proved false.
Brent crude oil closed at $87.86 on October 6, 2023 – the day before Hamas’s attack on Israel triggered the war. It now sits at about $75, telling you everything you need to know. All this happened before November 26’s Lebanon ceasefire fuelled hopes of broader peace.
So, while this bull market isn’t risk-free, well-known regional conflicts aren’t a trigger for a bear market. Rather, they are bricks in the wall of worry and stocks normally climb until worries subside and euphoria reins. Stocks spent all year telling you this. Trust them.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
How do Sim card scams work?
Sim swap frauds are a form of identity theft.
They involve criminals conning mobile phone operators into issuing them with replacement Sim cards by claiming to be the victim, often pretending their phone has been lost or stolen in order to secure a new Sim.
They use the victim's personal details - obtained through criminal methods - to convince such companies of their identity.
The criminal can then access any online service that requires security codes to be sent to a user's mobile phone, such as banking services.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPowertrain%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle%20electric%20motor%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E201hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E310Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E53kWh%20lithium-ion%20battery%20pack%20(GS%20base%20model)%3B%2070kWh%20battery%20pack%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E350km%20(GS)%3B%20480km%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C900%20(GS)%3B%20Dh149%2C000%20(GF)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Fly Etihad or Emirates from the UAE to Moscow from 2,763 return per person return including taxes.
Where to stay
Trips on the Golden Eagle Trans-Siberian cost from US$16,995 (Dh62,414) per person, based on two sharing.
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More from Neighbourhood Watch
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GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
Brief scores:
Toss: Rajputs, elected to field first
Sindhis 94-6 (10 ov)
Watson 42; Munaf 3-20
Rajputs 96-0 (4 ov)
Shahzad 74 not out
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How to invest in gold
Investors can tap into the gold price by purchasing physical jewellery, coins and even gold bars, but these need to be stored safely and possibly insured.
A cheaper and more straightforward way to benefit from gold price growth is to buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Most advisers suggest sticking to “physical” ETFs. These hold actual gold bullion, bars and coins in a vault on investors’ behalf. Others do not hold gold but use derivatives to track the price instead, adding an extra layer of risk. The two biggest physical gold ETFs are SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Gold Trust.
Another way to invest in gold’s success is to buy gold mining stocks, but Mr Gravier says this brings added risks and can be more volatile. “They have a serious downside potential should the price consolidate.”
Mr Kyprianou says gold and gold miners are two different asset classes. “One is a commodity and the other is a company stock, which means they behave differently.”
Mining companies are a business, susceptible to other market forces, such as worker availability, health and safety, strikes, debt levels, and so on. “These have nothing to do with gold at all. It means that some companies will survive, others won’t.”
By contrast, when gold is mined, it just sits in a vault. “It doesn’t even rust, which means it retains its value,” Mr Kyprianou says.
You may already have exposure to gold miners in your portfolio, say, through an international ETF or actively managed mutual fund.
You could spread this risk with an actively managed fund that invests in a spread of gold miners, with the best known being BlackRock Gold & General. It is up an incredible 55 per cent over the past year, and 240 per cent over five years. As always, past performance is no guide to the future.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Key Points
- Protests against President Omar Al Bashir enter their sixth day
- Reports of President Bashir's resignation and arrests of senior government officials
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
List of alleged parties
May 15 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at
least 17 staff members
May 20 2020: PM and Carrie attend 'bring your own booze'
party
Nov 27 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary
Gavin Williamson
Dec 13 2020: PM and Carrie throw a flat party
Dec 14 2020: London mayor candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative
Party headquarters
Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Sunday's Super Four matches
Dubai, 3.30pm
India v Pakistan
Abu Dhabi, 3.30pm
Bangladesh v Afghanistan
A general guide to how active you are:
Less than 5,000 steps - sedentary
5,000 - 9,999 steps - lightly active
10,000 - 12,500 steps - active
12,500 - highly active
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
RACECARD
6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (PA) $50,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
6.35pm: Festival City Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m
7.10pm: Dubai Racing Club Classic – Listed (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 2,410m
7.45pm: Jumeirah Classic Trial – Conditions (TB) $150,000 (T) 1,400m
8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (D) 1,600m
8.55pm: Cape Verdi – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
9.30pm: Dubai Dash – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,000m
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