Will the Fed keep cutting rates in 2025? Or will resurgent inflation force renewed hikes? Will UK and eurozone cuts prove too little, too late? Will more Bank of Japan hikes derail its gross domestic product bounce?
Anyone telling you what central banks will do is a liar or fool. You can’t know, ever. The good news? You don’t need to. Central banks’ power is hugely overrated. Cut, hike or hold, their actions rarely mean much. Sound heretical? Hear me out.
Two years ago, I showed you why central banks aren’t predictable. While their sterling resumes and pseudointellectual wisdom make the masses quiver, central bankers are, well, just people. People who say one thing and do another, change their minds, make mistakes and are overly convention bound. Their forecasts of their own actions are better at predicting what won’t happen than what will.
The European Central Bank (ECB) openly predicted no 2022 hikes but raised rates 50 basis points that July – then three more times. And six more in 2023. The Bank of England flip-flopped twice this cycle. They all flip-flop – often and always have. Hanging on every word is time misspent.
So is presuming wisdom drives their actions. Take wages. Fed folks deem wage growth inflationary. But US economist and statistician Milton Friedman proved five decades ago that rising wages always follow inflation – never cause it. We just lived it.
US inflation started spiking in February 2021 towards a 9.1 per cent peak rate, while wages fell. Later, wage growth began accelerating in May to a 5.9 per cent mid-2022 peak, while the inflation rate plummeted (to 2.7 per cent now). Then, wage growth slowed to 3.9 per cent. Inflation moves first; wages later – always. That holds globally, too, as inflation’s slowing came while UK and eurozone wages surged. Central banks never learn.
Nor do most investors, who keep insisting rate moves directionally drive economies and markets. History shows repeatedly that hikes and cuts swirl swiftly to background noise.
Yes, 2022’s already existing global stock bear market worsened as central banks hiked rates. But if rate hikes caused it, why did a rip-roaring rally start that October and soar as even more and bigger rate hikes rolled in?
Consider how the fear of hikes, not the hikes themselves, drove 2022’s slide. The S&P 500 gained 70.9 per cent since that October’s low – preceding six straight rate hikes. Stocks boomed in 2024, while early rapid rate cut expectations imploded.
The ECB hiked starting in July 2022. By its first cut this June, eurozone stocks were 38 per cent above pre-hike levels. The Bank of England hiked 14 times from December 2021 until this August’s cut. UK stocks rose 24 per cent in pounds over that stretch. With hikes like those, who needs cuts?
Consider: If cuts were massively bullish, European stocks should be partying, while Japanese stocks would be crying in the corner. Instead, eurozone stocks are down 1.1 per cent since June’s initial cut. The ECB cut four times through December, but the bloc’s stocks kept stumbling sideways. No monster rally. No swift economic data improvement as recession fears rage, while German GDP limps.
UK stocks are down 1.9 per cent since August’s first rate cut. Neither it nor November’s second cut was some massively bullish catalyst. Yes, monetary policy moves may hit the economy at a lag. But were there massive juice here, stocks would pre-price it. They aren’t.
Then consider Japan – the exception proving the rule. While western banks cut in 2024, Japan hiked for the first time in over a decade. Since July’s hike, the MSCI Japan index actually rose while Europe fell.
Markets spent all of 2024 showing you rate moves are just one small variable. They paled beside the larger trends driving markets. Solid growth, burgeoning tech demand and Trumpian fear fading – drove stellar US returns.
Falling luxury goods spending and economic jitters weighed on eurozone stocks despite rate cuts. Sector concentrations mattered more in Britain, too, where commodity-orientated stocks’ headwinds hurt.
Think longer term. Many claim now is like the late 1990s tech bubble. If so, note 10-year US Treasury rates rose all through 1999 from 4.6 per cent to 6.5 per cent, all higher than now, while the S&P 500 gained 20.1 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Fed Funds rate rose from 4.1 per cent to 5.3 per cent. Then, before the “bubble” burst, the Fed was already cutting rates and continued that entire bear market – all the way down to 1.3 per cent. Ignore their gyrations. They simply aren’t what moves stocks.
Successful investing requires looking where others don’t. While the world focuses on central banks’ sideshow, your time is better spent seeking whatever the masses overlook. Next month, I’ll show you that with my 2025 forecast. Happy New Year.
AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
The Bio
Favourite holiday destination: Either Kazakhstan or Montenegro. I’ve been involved in events in both countries and they are just stunning.
Favourite book: I am a huge of Robin Cook’s medical thrillers, which I suppose is quite apt right now. My mother introduced me to them back home in New Zealand.
Favourite film or television programme: Forrest Gump is my favourite film, that’s never been up for debate. I love watching repeats of Mash as well.
Inspiration: My late father moulded me into the man I am today. I would also say disappointment and sadness are great motivators. There are times when events have brought me to my knees but it has also made me determined not to let them get the better of me.
Drivers’ championship standings after Singapore:
1. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes - 263
2. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari - 235
3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes - 212
4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull - 162
5. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari - 138
6. Sergio Perez, Force India - 68
A%20QUIET%20PLACE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lupita%20Nyong'o%2C%20Joseph%20Quinn%2C%20Djimon%20Hounsou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMichael%20Sarnoski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
LA LIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Levante v Real Mallorca (12am)
Leganes v Barcelona (4pm)
Real Betis v Valencia (7pm)
Granada v Atletico Madrid (9.30pm)
Sunday
Real Madrid v Real Sociedad (12am)
Espanyol v Getafe (3pm)
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao (5pm)
Eibar v Alaves (7pm)
Villarreal v Celta Vigo (9.30pm)
Monday
Real Valladolid v Sevilla (12am)
ANATOMY%20OF%20A%20FALL
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJustine%20Triet%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESandra%20Huller%2C%20Swann%20Arlaud%2C%20Milo%20Machado-Graner%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
World record transfers
1. Kylian Mbappe - to Real Madrid in 2017/18 - €180 million (Dh770.4m - if a deal goes through)
2. Paul Pogba - to Manchester United in 2016/17 - €105m
3. Gareth Bale - to Real Madrid in 2013/14 - €101m
4. Cristiano Ronaldo - to Real Madrid in 2009/10 - €94m
5. Gonzalo Higuain - to Juventus in 2016/17 - €90m
6. Neymar - to Barcelona in 2013/14 - €88.2m
7. Romelu Lukaku - to Manchester United in 2017/18 - €84.7m
8. Luis Suarez - to Barcelona in 2014/15 - €81.72m
9. Angel di Maria - to Manchester United in 2014/15 - €75m
10. James Rodriguez - to Real Madrid in 2014/15 - €75m
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 480hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 570Nm from 2,300-5,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 10.4L/100km
Price: from Dh547,600
On sale: now
Seven tips from Emirates NBD
1. Never respond to e-mails, calls or messages asking for account, card or internet banking details
2. Never store a card PIN (personal identification number) in your mobile or in your wallet
3. Ensure online shopping websites are secure and verified before providing card details
4. Change passwords periodically as a precautionary measure
5. Never share authentication data such as passwords, card PINs and OTPs (one-time passwords) with third parties
6. Track bank notifications regarding transaction discrepancies
7. Report lost or stolen debit and credit cards immediately
Closing the loophole on sugary drinks
As The National reported last year, non-fizzy sugared drinks were not covered when the original tax was introduced in 2017. Sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, 20 grams of sugar per 500ml bottle.
The non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
Flavoured water, long-life fruit juice concentrates, pre-packaged sweetened coffee drinks fall under the ‘sweetened drink’ category
Not taxed:
Freshly squeezed fruit juices, ground coffee beans, tea leaves and pre-prepared flavoured milkshakes do not come under the ‘sweetened drink’ band.
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
Classification of skills
A worker is categorised as skilled by the MOHRE based on nine levels given in the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) issued by the International Labour Organisation.
A skilled worker would be someone at a professional level (levels 1 – 5) which includes managers, professionals, technicians and associate professionals, clerical support workers, and service and sales workers.
The worker must also have an attested educational certificate higher than secondary or an equivalent certification, and earn a monthly salary of at least Dh4,000.
The specs: 2018 Chevrolet Trailblazer
Price, base / as tested Dh99,000 / Dh132,000
Engine 3.6L V6
Transmission: Six-speed automatic
Power 275hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 350Nm @ 3,700rpm
Fuel economy combined 12.2L / 100km
RoboCop%3A%20Rogue%20City
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The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C600rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C500-4%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.9L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh119%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
Desert Warrior
Starring: Anthony Mackie, Aiysha Hart, Ben Kingsley
Director: Rupert Wyatt
Rating: 3/5
Ziina users can donate to relief efforts in Beirut
Ziina users will be able to use the app to help relief efforts in Beirut, which has been left reeling after an August blast caused an estimated $15 billion in damage and left thousands homeless. Ziina has partnered with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to raise money for the Lebanese capital, co-founder Faisal Toukan says. “As of October 1, the UNHCR has the first certified badge on Ziina and is automatically part of user's top friends' list during this campaign. Users can now donate any amount to the Beirut relief with two clicks. The money raised will go towards rebuilding houses for the families that were impacted by the explosion.”
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Winners
Ballon d’Or (Men’s)
Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain / France)
Ballon d’Or Féminin (Women’s)
Aitana Bonmatí (Barcelona / Spain)
Kopa Trophy (Best player under 21 – Men’s)
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona / Spain)
Best Young Women’s Player
Vicky López (Barcelona / Spain)
Yashin Trophy (Best Goalkeeper – Men’s)
Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City / Italy)
Best Women’s Goalkeeper
Hannah Hampton (England / Aston Villa and Chelsea)
Men’s Coach of the Year
Luis Enrique (Paris Saint-Germain)
Women’s Coach of the Year
Sarina Wiegman (England)
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The biog
Favourite car: Ferrari
Likes the colour: Black
Best movie: Avatar
Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy
More about Middle East geopolitics
Ruwais timeline
1971 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established
1980 Ruwais Housing Complex built, located 10 kilometres away from industrial plants
1982 120,000 bpd capacity Ruwais refinery complex officially inaugurated by the founder of the UAE Sheikh Zayed
1984 Second phase of Ruwais Housing Complex built. Today the 7,000-unit complex houses some 24,000 people.
1985 The refinery is expanded with the commissioning of a 27,000 b/d hydro cracker complex
2009 Plans announced to build $1.2 billion fertilizer plant in Ruwais, producing urea
2010 Adnoc awards $10bn contracts for expansion of Ruwais refinery, to double capacity from 415,000 bpd
2014 Ruwais 261-outlet shopping mall opens
2014 Production starts at newly expanded Ruwais refinery, providing jet fuel and diesel and allowing the UAE to be self-sufficient for petrol supplies
2014 Etihad Rail begins transportation of sulphur from Shah and Habshan to Ruwais for export
2017 Aldar Academies to operate Adnoc’s schools including in Ruwais from September. Eight schools operate in total within the housing complex.
2018 Adnoc announces plans to invest $3.1 billion on upgrading its Ruwais refinery
2018 NMC Healthcare selected to manage operations of Ruwais Hospital
2018 Adnoc announces new downstream strategy at event in Abu Dhabi on May 13
Source: The National
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
The Gentlemen
Director: Guy Ritchie
Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant
Three out of five stars
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
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The%20specs
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20NOTHING%20PHONE%20(2)
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The specs: 2018 Maserati GranTurismo/GranCabrio
Price, base Dh485,000 (GranTurismo) and Dh575,000 (GranCabrio)
Engine 4.7L V8
Transmission Six-speed automatic
Power 460hp @ 7,000rpm
Torque 520Nm @ 4,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.3L (GranTurismo) and 14.5L (GranCabrio) / 100km
Trump v Khan
2016: Feud begins after Khan criticised Trump’s proposed Muslim travel ban to US
2017: Trump criticises Khan’s ‘no reason to be alarmed’ response to London Bridge terror attacks
2019: Trump calls Khan a “stone cold loser” before first state visit
2019: Trump tweets about “Khan’s Londonistan”, calling him “a national disgrace”
2022: Khan’s office attributes rise in Islamophobic abuse against the major to hostility stoked during Trump’s presidency
July 2025 During a golfing trip to Scotland, Trump calls Khan “a nasty person”
Sept 2025 Trump blames Khan for London’s “stabbings and the dirt and the filth”.
Dec 2025 Trump suggests migrants got Khan elected, calls him a “horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor”
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Results
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $36,000 (Dirt) 1,600m, Winner: RB Money To Burn, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Turf) 2,410m, Winner: Star Safari, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.40pm: Meydan Trophy – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (T) 1,900m, Winner: Secret Protector, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.15pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 - Group 2 (TB) $293,000 (D) 1,900m, Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
8.50pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m, Winner: Zakouski, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (T) 1,000m, Winner: Motafaawit, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 310hp
Torque: 366Nm
Price: Dh200,000
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
