Defence chiefs meet in London on Thursday to debate the size of a European-led army that could be posted to Ukraine as part of a “coalition of the willing” if a ceasefire is agreed with Russia.
British defence minister Luke Pollard said the commitment to secure peace in Ukraine was needed despite President Vladimir Putin rejection of any western security presence. Speaking in London, Mr Pollard said the allies were counting on US involvement. “What we’re planning at the moment is for a force that will include the United States as a backstop,” he told Times Radio on Thursday.
The force, likely to number between 20,000 and 40,000 troops, will hope to act as a deterrent to future Russian aggression. But to do so it will need to be extremely robust, packing a powerful combined arms punch of infantry, artillery, tanks, jets and warships.
Keir Starmer will join the meeting at the PJHQ military headquarters in north London where the size and type of force is being thrashed out. Mr Starmer travelled from a visit to one of Britain's Vanguard nuclear submarines, where he said Ukraine appreciated the UK deterrent.
The National has spoken to military experts on the potential make up of the peacekeeping force drawn from the 26 countries of the coalition.
Infantry
Foot soldiers will be the most visible and most vulnerable of all troops posted to Ukraine. With provocation from Russia highly likely, as well as casualties, their rules of engagement will be key. If they are too weak, the Russians are likely to take advantage, as the Serbs did during the Bosnian war, and either take prisoners or ignore them.
France’s well-resourced army could provide the biggest numbers, along with Germany, Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Britain.
“It should look like a conventional army ready for war to properly deter Russia,” said Sam Cranny-Evans, editor of Calibre Defence, a defence consultancy. “For their rules of engagement, it would have to be made clear that any Russian soldiers found beyond a certain point would be engaged.”
Estimated numbers
France: 6,000 – reinforced armoured brigade
Germany: 6,000 – armoured brigade
Turkey: 4,000-6,000 – armoured brigade
UK: 3,000-5,000 – 7th Light Brigade, plus elements of 16 Air Assault Brigade
Canada, Netherlands, Denmark: 1,500 each with a battlegroup
Australia: 700 – reinforced light infantry battalion
New Zealand: 150 – reinforced company
Czech, Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Portugal, Spain: 12,000 – possibly two combined brigades of 6,000 each
Estimated total: 40,350
Countries that border Russia – Poland, Nordic nations and Baltic states – are unlikely to contribute ground forces.
Tanks
The assigned brigades will need to be strong enough to protect the infantry and project power. While Russian tanks have proven highly vulnerable, particularly to drones, western tanks have greater defences and firepower.
The British army is unlikely to field any of its Challenger II tanks as the force has been “run down and can barely service the 11 tanks in Estonia”, said military commentator Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Eye.
However, the French Leclerc and German Leopard 2 tanks are available in numbers. The Netherlands, which ditched tanks 13 years ago, is now rapidly rearming and spending $1 billion on new Leopard 2s.
“You still need the ability to concentrate heavy firepower to destroy enemy vehicles,” said Matthew Savill, head of military science at the Rusi think tank. “Tanks are vulnerable but also survivable.”
Estimated numbers
Germany: 50-84 Leopard 2
France: 52 Leclerc main battle tanks
Turkey: 50-84, mostly the new domestically made Altay as well as Leopard 2s
Denmark: 16 Leopard 2s
Greece: 16-32 Leopard 2s
Estimated total: 268
Infantry fighting vehicles
With one-way-attack drones and anti-personnel mines swamping the battlefield, armoured protection in Ukraine is vital to prevent casualties.
Ukraine has been given scores of German Marder, Swedish CV90 and American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, generally mounted with a 20mm or 30mm cannon very useful for close support.
Again, the paucity of kit available in the British army, is highlighted by the requirement for “an absolute national effort” to get a battalion-sized force of the ageing Warrior armoured vehicles, said Mr Tusa.
Estimated numbers
Germany: 98 Marder
France: 98 VBCI
Britain: 48 Warrior
Turkey: 98 ACV-15s
Greece: 16 Marder
Estimated total: 358
Artillery
The renaissance of traditional artillery has been significant in the Ukraine war with the more than 16 million rounds fired so far causing 80 per cent of casualties.
Ukraine has 900 artillery pieces, most donated by western powers, including Britain, which gave up its entire stock of AS90 guns.
“You want a lot of artillery as brings with it a powerful suppressant effect and ideally rocket artillery,” said Mr Savill.
Estimated numbers
Turkey: 32 – two regiments of 155mm self-propelled K9 Thunder and Arpan howitzers
Germany: 18 Panzerhaubitze 2,000 tracked 155mm guns
France: 16 Caesar wheeled 155mm guns. France has already donated 67 to Ukraine.
UK: 18 105mm light guns
Canada: 6 M777 155mm towed howitzers
Netherlands: 16 Panzerhaubitze 2,000
Greece: 16 Panzerhaubitze 2,000 or M109s
Estimated total: 122
In addition, countries will be able field MLRS or ATACMS precision missile systems that Ukraine has shown to be highly effective.
Attack helicopters
Sleek helicopters armed with missiles were supposed to be the battle winners of modern warfare, yet advanced short-range missiles and drones have blunted their power, with the Russians losing a large chunk of their fleet.
However, the advanced models fielded by western armies could give a further edge to the deterrence force and would be welcomed by Ukraine.
Estimated numbers
Britain: 16 – 8 Apache 64E, 8 Wildcat
France: 12 Eurocopter Tigers
Germany: 8 Eurocopter Tigers
Greece: 6 Apache
Estimated total: 42
Air power
A significant boost in the deterrent force would be advanced fighters owned by many European countries. Even if it is not allowed to use America’s F-35s, the Eurofighter Typhoon and French Rafale will outclass much of the opposition, especially with advanced air-to-air missiles that out-range what the Russians have.
Europe’s advanced drones could also play a role, especially if the US allows Britain to use its Reaper models. But it will also be a fast-learning experience on how small, cheap and plentiful drones are used to deadly effect.
Also, if Germany provides air-launched Taurus cruise missiles, that would present a significant threat.
Estimated numbers
Britain: 42 Typhoons – Britain could put forward a “wing” of its battle-proven fighters.
France: 32 Rafale – two squadrons
Germany: 18 Typhoons
Greece: 8 Typhoons
Estimated total: 100
Navy
While the majority of casualties have occurred on land, Ukraine has been able to sink at least a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using drones and missiles.
Putting air defence destroyers in the area, with their anti-aircraft Aster missiles’ range of 150km, would severely curtail Russian air activity over key Ukrainian ports such as Odesa. A lot would depend on Turkey allowing ships into the Black Sea as it has the final say on warships entering under the Montreux Convention.
Britain could provide a Type 45 destroyer and France could similarly send one of its Horizon destroyers.
Air defence
Again, Ukraine has proven the critical need for strong air defences, both to defend frontline troops and protect key industrial sites and cities.
If the US allows it, more Patriot batteries could come in, especially from Germany, as well as potential batteries from Norway and Sweden. Britain’s small force of Starstreak missiles mounted on Stormer tracked vehicles has already been largely given to Ukraine.
Mr Pollard added that other frontline forces along the Russian frontier should be maintained even if some of the assigned troops are mobilised for Ukraine. “The type of planning that we're doing today is to make sure that any force in or around Ukraine can be as credible as possible, and importantly, support our Ukrainian friends to defend their country and their front line,” he said.
