Sudan's army and allied groups could face formidable battlefield challenges if the recent political agreement between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and a powerful faction of a southern rebel group becomes a military alliance, Sudanese analysts have said.
The Sudan People's Liberation Army-North, led by Abdel Aziz Al Hilu, was the most prominent signatory of an RSF-sponsored charter unveiled in Kenya this week that provides for the creation of a parallel government of “peace and unity” in areas held by the paramilitary.
The signing came as the army continued a slow but tenacious advance against the RSF in the three cities of the capital's greater region – Khartoum, Bahri and Omdurman – which mostly fell under the control of the paramilitary in the early days of its 22-month civil war against the Sudanese Armed Forces.
The fighting is now centred in the heart and southern fringes of the capital, where the army's progress is being mostly impeded by RSF snipers on top of buildings and positions deep in heavily built-up residential districts.
But parts of Sudan under the control of the RSF and the SPLM-N together make up about half the country. The RSF holds sway over most of the western Darfur region and parts of Kordofan to the south-west of the capital, and continues to control Khartoum International Airport, the Nile-side presidential palace, parts of the downtown area and several strategically located military bases in the capital.
The SPLM-N, which briefly fought the RSF and the army during the war's early days, has for years controlled south Kordofan, including the strategic Nuba Mountains, and parts of the southern Blue Nile state. It did not sign a 2020 peace deal between Khartoum and various rebel groups active in the west and south.
“It's a military alliance par excellence, with potentially huge military power that must not be taken lightly,” Ibrahim Mahdy, a retired Sudanese army general, said of the RSF-sponsored agreement signed in Nairobi on Sunday. “It can lead to the creation of a large force that will fuel the conflict.”
The alliance between the RSF and SPLM-N cements a narrative of unity among millions of Sudanese, of both Arab and ethnic African lineage, living in far-flung regions such as Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile, who have long complained of discrimination by northern Sudan's political elite.
There have been anti-government rebellions in all three regions over the years, some of which, like those in Kordofan and Blue Nile, continue to this day, albeit at low intensity.
Analysts say the most dangerous implication of a parallel government in RSF-held areas is that it could serve as a prelude to the secession of the western regions, which in turn would create a precedent that other discontented areas, like the restless, army-controlled eastern region, will want to emulate.
Major tribes in the eastern region have staged protests in recent years to demand better services and more development funds.
Sudan's western regions are inhabited by a mix of mostly farming ethnic Africans and cattle-herding Arabs who have historically fought each other over water and land. The RSF's popular base in Darfur, its birthplace, is almost exclusively Arab, although the paramilitary claims ethnic Africans are also among its supporters. The RSF, however, has been accused by the UN international rights groups of ethnic cleansing targeting Darfur's ethnic Africans.
In contrast, SPLM-N members and supporters are mainly ethnic Africans.
“Steps towards the break-up of Sudan had been taken even before this week's announcement of a parallel government,” said analyst Shawki Abdel Aazim. “They call it a 'government of peace and unity' but in fact the project betrays a clear attempt based on ethnicity to break away.”
Army chief and de facto president Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan has also spoken recently of setting up a government of technocrats to run the country's day-to-day affairs until the war ends, but neither he nor RSF commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo have taken concrete steps to form a government.
Sudan, a vast religiously and ethnically diverse nation that has often seemed on the cusp of implosion, has experienced secession when the mostly animist and Christian south of the country broke away in 2011 after a civil war against the north that lasted more than 20 years.
With the south gone, Sudan lost a third of its territory and most of its oil wealth, plunging the country back into poverty after a short spell of oil-fuelled prosperity.
UN chief Antonio Guterres said he was "deeply concerned" by the RSF's intention to form a parallel government with its allies. “This further escalation in the conflict in Sudan deepens the fragmentation of the country,” his spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, said on Monday.
Sudanese analyst Osman Al Mirghany believes the RSF's alliance with the SPLM-N is unlikely to be reflected on the battlefields, arguing that Mr Al Hilu might have joined the political alliance on the assumption he could make material gains for his group's cause. He also noted that the RSF had targeted members of Kordofan tribes loyal to Mr Al Hilu early in the war.
“He did not personally sign the charter although he was in Nairobi at the time. Furthermore, no military alliance with the RSF was announced,” Mr Al Mirghany said. “He stands to lose nothing by entering that alliance, but creating the alliance and talking about a parallel government remains to be a dangerous move that pushes in the direction of secession.”
He noted that local administrations formed and sponsored by the RSF in areas under its control have either failed to allay daily, war-related hardships experienced by most Sudanese or have disappeared altogether.
The war in Sudan has killed tens of thousands of people, forced more than 12 million to flee their homes and left about 26 million – more than half the population – facing acute hunger, with pockets of famine already emerging.
Both the army and the RSF, whose forerunner is the notorious Janjaweed militia in Darfur, have been accused by foreign governments and international rights groups of committing war crimes.
The US has also singled out the RSF for charges of genocide in Darfur against ethnic Africans. Both Gen Dagalo and Gen Al Burhan have had sanctions imposed on them by the US for their part in the war.
The war is essentially a power struggle between the once-allied generals who led a coup in 2021 that toppled a civilian-led transitional government two years after the removal of dictator Omar Al Bashir amid a popular uprising against his 29-year rule.
Al Shafie Ahmed was reporting from Kampala, Uganda
