Iran can enrich enough uranium to weapons-grade for five nuclear devices within a week, analysts have claimed.
But Tehran’s ability to build a viable missile-launched weapon is expected to take between six and 18 months, according to western intelligence reports.
Following threats from US President Donald Trump, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s senior adviser said that it would acquire such a weapon if attacked.
“We are not moving towards [nuclear] weapons, but if you do something wrong in the Iranian nuclear issue, you will force Iran to move towards that because it has to defend itself,” Ali Larijani told state television on Monday.
That makes the coming months a crucial period for the region, said Dr Sanam Vakil, of the Chatham House think tank in London.
“We are in a crisis year where we could see negotiations, an Israeli attack and weaponisation all take place,” she told The National.
“There's a sequence to how this is going to go. To justify weaponisation, there will have to be an attack and for there to be an attack there will have to be efforts at negotiation.”
Eight bombs, two weeks
Although none of Iran’s centrifuges are enriching uranium to the 90 per cent level that defines weapons-grade material, it has a stockpile enriched to 60 per cent, according to the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security.
With further enrichment, that material could fuel “up to five nuclear warheads within one week or eight within two weeks”, said Darya Dolzikova, an expert on nuclear proliferation at the Rusi think tank.
Iran Watch, which tracks the country’s ability to make nuclear weapons, also confirmed the figures but added in a report last month that for the uranium to pose a nuclear threat it would have to be processed further into weapon components.
It also said that if Iran chose to make nuclear weapons “it could do so at secret sites” rather than a well-known location, as “in a dash to make weapons…it would risk detection before success”.
Nuclear missile ‘unknowns’
While the material for making a bomb could be done quickly, the greater difficulty is to build and test a bomb, place it on a missile and fire it.
“Uranium is no longer a problem for the Iranians but to develop a nuclear weapon to put that fissile material into it is the bigger question, a much bigger unknown,” said Jeremy Binnie, an Iran missile analyst at Janes, the defence intelligence company.
The Khorramshahr is the most likely missile to be used as its 1,800kg payload would allow it to carry a nuclear device as far as 2,000 kilometres, putting Tel Aviv within range.
The first step will be moulding the uranium into a ball then developing a trigger mechanism to initiate the nuclear reaction for detonation.
“That's actually a pretty complex device to manufacture, as you need to wrap conventional explosives to the trigger mechanism housing,” said Mr Binnie.
Iran would also need to rebuild explosive testing chambers as the site in Parchin was taken down following the 2015 nuclear agreement.
“Intelligence estimates indicate that the Iranians aren't that advanced, and that will handicap their ability to very quickly develop a deliverable nuclear weapon,” Mr Binnie added.
That device would need 16kg of uranium U-235 for one weapon. However, if Iran chose to move more quickly, it could go with a 7kg nuclear warhead.
This would have a yield of just under the 16,000 tonnes of conventional explosives equivalent of the bomb dropped by the US on the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945, according to Iran Watch.
“Some experts believe that Iran could use less material, assuming Iran would accept a lower yield for each weapon,” its report said. “Iran could use as few as seven kilograms if Iran’s weapon developers possessed a 'medium' level of skill.”
Deep tunnels
Ms Dolzikova said intelligence estimates put Iran’s capability for a nuclear missile at between six and 18 months, which allows time to fully plan strikes.
But Iran has been only too aware of the likelihood of an attack on its nuclear programme and has dispersed and fortified its facilities.
Natanz, located 225km south of Tehran, is Iran’s flagship enrichment site with four tunnels bored into the mountain providing underground protection against air strikes.
Fordow, a heavily reinforced plant embedded in a mountain near Qom, was a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps base built to withstand attack.
Much of its other sites can be dispersed, although they are vulnerable to both Israeli and American intelligence finding them either from human sources or satellite and communications intelligence.
Massive Ordnance Penetrator
Currently the US, Iran, Israel and European powers were “in the war of words and pre negotiation phase”, said Dr Vakil, but the clock was running out as there was a September deadline for the E3 countries (UK, France, Germany) to call in the “snapback mechanism” of UN sanctions against Iran that expire the following month.
“If they don't make a deal, there will be bombing,” Mr Trump told NBC News on Sunday. “It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.”
But attacking its sites will come with great risk and be complex, although Israel has already demonstrated its ability to decimate Iran’s air defences with its air strikes last October.
To destroy mountain and tunnelled sites, beyond a nuclear weapon only the US-made GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 13,000kg bomb, is capable of penetrating deep into the earth to destroy subterranean centres.
But the only aircraft that can carry the GBU-57 are the USAF’s B-2 or B-1 bombers.
Israel’s most powerful bomb, the GBU-28, can penetrate some bunkers but not deep enough for targets buried under mountains.
If Israel were to attempt a strike with its F-15I fighter bombers, it would face serious logistical challenges, including the need to refuel mid-air for long-range flights, as reported last year by The National.
The biog
Hometown: Birchgrove, Sydney Australia
Age: 59
Favourite TV series: Outlander Netflix series
Favourite place in the UAE: Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque / desert / Louvre Abu Dhabi
Favourite book: Father of our Nation: Collected Quotes of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan
Thing you will miss most about the UAE: My friends and family, Formula 1, having Friday's off, desert adventures, and Arabic culture and people
Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20turbocharged%204-cyl%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E300bhp%20(GT)%20330bhp%20(Modena)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E450Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh299%2C000%20(GT)%2C%20Dh369%2C000%20(Modena)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
if you go
The flights
Fly to Rome with Etihad (www.etihad.ae) or Emirates (www.emirates.com) from Dh2,480 return including taxes. The flight takes six hours. Fly from Rome to Trapani with Ryanair (www.ryanair.com) from Dh420 return including taxes. The flight takes one hour 10 minutes.
The hotels
The author recommends the following hotels for this itinerary. In Trapani, Ai Lumi (www.ailumi.it); in Marsala, Viacolvento (www.viacolventomarsala.it); and in Marsala Del Vallo, the Meliaresort Dimore Storiche (www.meliaresort.it).
MATCH INFO
Real Madrid 2
Vinicius Junior (71') Mariano (90 2')
Barcelona 0
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).
Second leg
Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm
Games on BeIN Sports
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm
Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: L/100km
Price: Dh306,495
On sale: now
UFC%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi
%3Cp%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20112%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Invincible%20(April%2010%2C%202010)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENogueira%20v%20Nelson%20(April%2011%2C%202014)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20242%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khabib%20v%20Poirier%20(September%207%2C%202019)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%201%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20251%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Usman%20v%20Masvidal%20(July%2012%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kattar%20v%20Ige%20(July%2016%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFigueiredo%20v%20Benavidez%202%20(July%2019%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%20Whittaker%20v%20Till%20(July%2026%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%202%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20253%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAdesanya%20v%20Costa%20(September%2027%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holm%20v%20Aldana%20(October%204%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Moraes%20v%20Sandhagen%20(October%2011%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20Fight%20Night%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ortega%20v%20Korean%20Zombie%20(October%2018%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20254%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKhabib%20v%20Gaethje%20(October%2024%2C%202020)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFight%20Island%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20on%20ABC%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Holloway%20v%20Kattar%20(January%2016%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20on%20ESPN%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chiesa%20v%20Magny%20(January%2020%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUFC%20257%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPoirier%20v%20McGregor%202%20(January%2024%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20267%3A%20Blachowicz%20v%20Teixeira%20(October%2030%2C%202021)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EUFC%20280%3A%20Oliveira%20v%20Makhachev%20(October%2022%2C%202022)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
more from Janine di Giovanni
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
