Air travel from the UK may have to be curbed if jet engines fail to cut their carbon footprint, Britain was warned on Wednesday.
The UK's top climate change advisers said aviation was on track to become Britain's most polluting sector by 2040. They said ministers would have to consider higher taxes, or limiting the growth of airports such as London Heathrow, if net zero is slipping out of reach.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a tug-of-war between his climate advisers and Heathrow bosses who pledged on Wednesday to submit proposals for a third runway within months. The airport described itself as “Britain's gateway to growth” as it reported an increase in profits to £917 million ($1.16 billion).
The Climate Change Committee's report said any increase in flying “is conditional” on green technology – such as sustainable aviation fuel – developing as hoped. Mr Starmer's government has backed Heathrow's third runway and is considering expansion plans for London Luton and London Gatwick.
If technology “is not on track to deliver what is required … the government and the aviation industry will need to be ready to implement more demand management policy”, the committee said. It said a “balanced pathway” to net zero would see passenger flights rise by a relatively modest 16 per cent by 2040, when they might otherwise grow 53 per cent.
“For a long time, decarbonisation in this country has really meant work in the power sector, but now we need to see action on transport, buildings, industry, and farming,” said the committee's chairman, climate scientist Piers Forster. “This will create opportunities in the economy, tackle climate change, and bring down household bills.”
Ways to curb flying
Options suggested by Britain's climate advisers include a fuel tax on airlines, increasing air passenger duty or a frequent flyer levy, all of which would raise ticket prices. While the UK and Denmark have already increased flight taxes, Sweden is abolishing it this year in a push for growth.
The committee said curbs on airport expansion “could also play a supplementary role”, along with “nudging and information policies” that tell passengers about their CO2 footprint. Restricting domestic flights would be another option but would have a “smaller overall impact”, its report said.
One Labour MP, Toby Perkins, who chairs an environmental committee in parliament, said he would like to see an “ironclad guarantee” on how emissions from flying would be cut “before spades go into the ground” to expand airports. He described aviation and shipping emissions as “tricky areas to get under control”.
Clean fuels “are not going to be available in sufficient quantities to offset all the extra emissions that further airport expansion would create”, said transport expert Colin Walker of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. However, he said there was “no need for people to give up their holidays abroad” as long as there is only a modest increase in passenger numbers.
In meetings with a “citizens' panel” the climate committee said people were willing to pay higher fares to the tune of about £300 ($380) more for a return ticket from London to New York, assuming incomes also rise. It said there was some support for a frequent flyer levy and for curbing airport expansion.
However, people “emphasised the importance” of families being able to take a foreign holiday once a year, and felt that responsibility for cutting CO2 emissions “should sit with the airline industry”. They felt restrictions on short flights would have “limited effectiveness” and showed more support for taxing private jets.
The recommendations on flying were part of a “carbon budget” presented to UK ministers to set out a path to net zero. The climate panel expects emissions from cars, heating, industry and the power grid to fall much more sharply than in aviation.
Heathrow said on Wednesday its aim was to have approval for a third runway before Britain's next election, due in 2029. It said it was working on related projects to upgrade its terminals and “boost the environmental credentials of our facilities”.
“Over the next decade, we will be making the largest private investment in the UK’s transport network which will modernise Heathrow and unlock new capacity for growth,” said the airport's chief executive Thomas Woldbye. “This will grow the economy, make Heathrow better for all of our customers and give the UK a competitive world-class hub fit for the future.”
