Does anyone really care about Britain’s 'biggest post-Brexit trade deal' in the Asia-Pacific?

“Cold, damp island in the North Atlantic Ocean joins Pacific trade pact”. I cannot claim I have seen this headline, but I have the impression that it sums up what quite a lot of people in the Asia-Pacific feel about an event that some British politicians think is momentous news: the UK formally joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership on Sunday. Britain has become the twelfth member of the not-so-snappily-named CPTPP, joining Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Mexico and Canada. Together they represent nearly 15 per cent of global GDP, making it one of the world’s largest free trade agreements. Technically any country is free to apply to join, but the expectation was that new entrants would be from Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation countries. Being so far away, the UK was an unlikely candidate, but as a trade adviser to Boris Johnson ’s Conservative government told me as they prepared to apply: “We qualify as a Pacific country because we own the Pitcairn Islands.” (Population: “around 50”, according to the islands’ official website.) Either way, Britain is now in, and politicians on both sides of the aisle in London are hailing the pact – because while the UK has become a fully fledged member under a Labour government, it was a Conservative government that negotiated the joining process. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch calls the CPTPP “a trade deal that brings enormous benefits to everyone from British farmers to fintech and small businesses to the largest manufacturers”, while current Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds says it will “boost trade and create opportunities for UK companies abroad” and that “Britain is uniquely placed to take advantage of exciting new markets, while strengthening existing relationships.” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had previously been lukewarm about Britain joining the CPTPP, pointing out that the “net contribution to our economy will be something in the order of 0.08 per cent”. At present, however, his government will take whatever good news it can get, so all sides have reason to cheer this move at home. What about the countries who formed the CPTPP from the ashes of a previous agreement that president-elect Donald Trump tore up in one of the first acts of his presidency in 2017 – how have they greeted their new member? Several governments have issued warm statements. The New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade stated that “Bringing the first acceding Party into the Agreement is a significant achievement. This milestone strengthens our economic ties and opens up new opportunities for trade, investment and growth in our region and beyond” and went on to praise the agreement’s “high standards”. Japan’s ambassador to London posted a cheery video on social media, waving a Union Jack flag while congratulating Britain and saying it would be a “great boost” in trade and investment opportunities between the two countries. A few media outlets in Vietnam and Singapore also reported the news positively, although they did concentrate on why it was good for Britain, rather than for the pre-existing members. On the whole, though, it would be fair to say that what strikes UK politicians as big news has hardly resonated in most of the original CPTPP countries. I contacted a few international and economic experts in the region. One was barely aware it had happened. The chief economist of one South-East Asian bank was representative of several when he told me he was happy to be quoted. “But what can I say?” he asked me. It may be because the UK already has trade agreements with some CPTPP members, such as Australia, New Zealand, Peru, Canada and Singapore. It may be that many are sceptical about big talk over trade agreements in any case; they have heard so much about the creation of the single market in the Association of South-East Asian Nations ( Asean ) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as well as the bucketloads of foreign direct investment that South-East Asian governments often boast about, without ever feeling that these events produce tangible, noticeable benefits for them or their families. It may be that it’s too soon – more than 99 per cent of UK goods exports are supposed to be tariff-free now the deal is in place, but implementation may not be immediate, and Britain has only been a member for a few days. At an official level, it may be that some are being cautious because they are mindful of the political implications. “If you look at these trade agreements, there’s always a political impetus,” says a friend who was involved in Malaysian government trade negotiations with both the US and China in the past. Japan was the main mover in reconstituting the CPTPP after the US’s departure caused the end of the predecessor agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. “Japan’s very happy that the UK has joined. Is it trying to build the CPTPP into a force to thwart China?” Nobody would say so publicly, of course. The test will be how China’s application to join the CPTPP is treated, an issue complicated by the fact that Taiwan has also applied. Perhaps it was inevitable that what has widely been described as Britain’s “biggest post-Brexit trade deal” would be roundly trumpeted at home. What I did not expect was for the news to be greeted by such an absence of reaction in the Asia-Pacific. Greater access to each others’ markets and the reduction or elimination of most tariffs are supposed to be the key benefits of the CPTPP, so it’s not, as the Americans say, just a “nothingburger”, although maybe it is difficult to get people excited about trade agreements. At the moment, however, as I write from South-East Asia, Britain’s formal entry into the agreement reminds me of nothing more than the famous question: If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there, does it still make a sound?