Saad Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister, could be tasked with forming a government this Thursday, filling a vacuum that has lasted since early August. The dynamics leading to this moment were released in a notable interview with Mr Hariri almost two weeks ago.
In that interview, Mr Hariri sent a number of messages – some blunt, others more subliminal. Many people expected him to say that he would not be a candidate for prime minister, as he had noted on several occasions previously since resigning in the wake of popular protests in October 2019.
This time, however, he insisted that he was the natural candidate for the post.
He did not even bother to confirm formally that he would stand, so obvious did it seem.
Mr Hariri’s announcement appeared to reflect a shift in the attitude of his regional supporters.
For a long time, Saudi Arabia had not been happy that he seemed to be the front man for a system, they believe, is in large measure controlled by Hezbollah.
That said, Saudi Arabian officials in Beirut had noted that there was no objection to Mr Hariri’s candidacy, as long as he returned to office with a clear programme to implement.
Similarly, Mr Hariri’s attitude also signalled a possible shift in Washington. For the same reasons as Riyadh, the Trump administration had not been enthusiastic about Mr Hariri’s return.
Yet in the aftermath of his announcement, US officials declared their support for the quick formation of a Lebanese government, acknowledging that they had not objection to the former prime minister coming back.
What happened? Mr Hariri had strong French backing and He declared that he had a programme to implement: to move forward with the economic reform plan floated by French President Emmanuel Macron last September in Beirut. At the time, Mr Macron had hoped for the quick formation of a technocratic government to implement it, but this was derailed because of a disagreement between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement (the two main Lebanese Shia parties) and Mr Hariri.
In the aftermath of this setback, however, all sides reaffirmed that they wanted the French plan to succeed, which left a door open for Mr Hariri to throw his hat into the ring, with French encouragement.
Hezbollah and Amal welcomed this move, as it could calm sectarian tensions and side-line the possibility of their having to form another failed government opposed by a majority of Lebanese, similar to that of caretaker prime minister Hassan Diab.
There were two implicit messages in Mr Hariri’s interview. The first he directed at the political class, telling all parties that they should accept his return at the head of a government of technocrats in order to avoid the complete disintegration of the Lebanese economy. In other words, Mr Hariri was proposing a solution that would save the politicians from the consequences of such a collapse.
The second, Mr Hariri directed at his sometime allies Walid Jumblatt, the political leader of Lebanon’s Druze community, and the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party. Both had refused to support his comeback in the past, and he was harsh in implying that with or without their support he would form a government with Hezbollah and Amal.
The strong implication was that both of them, representatives of minority groups, had no interest in opposing an agreement between the major Sunni and Shia parties.
Only time will tell whether Mr Hariri's gamble succeeds and Lebanon can take steps toward a deal with the IMF
On October 16, President Michel Aoun was scheduled to hold parliamentary consultations to name a prime minister.
However, Mr Aoun, realising that Mr Hariri would be anointed and that his son-in-law Gebran Bassil would have no say in the matter, delayed consultations until October 22. In that way he sought to buy time for Mr Bassil to secure his stake in a new Hariri government.
Mr Bassil and Mr Hariri are on bad terms, and one of the conditions the former prime minister had for taking office was that Mr Bassil not control the energy ministry. Mr Bassil’s ambition is to become president, and he could use such control as leverage to secure Mr Hariri’s support for his candidacy. Yet reform of the ministry is also a central aspect of the Macron plan, so Mr Hariri’s priority was always to block a return of Mr Bassil or one of his appointees.
What may have changed is that Hezbollah, which had often supported Mr Bassil against Mr Hariri, appears unwilling to do so this time around. Partly, that’s because the party wants to avoid a complete economic breakdown, which could threaten Lebanon’s stability and therefore its own dominant role in it. Partly, it is because Hezbollah’s priority today is to retain political Shia unity, and therefore to side with Mr Bassil’s bitterest rival, the Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.
And partly it is because Hezbollah wants to preserve Sunni-Shia relations in Lebanon at a time of regional volatility and on the eve of US elections. Only time will tell whether Mr Hariri’s gamble succeeds and Lebanon can take steps toward a deal with the International Monetary Fund. For now, the political victim of this consensus appears to be Mr Bassil. If reform is the ruling class’s sole path to self-preservation, Lebanon may see more change than had seemed possible.
Michael Young is a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut and a columnist for The National
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Rating: 4/5
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Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
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England XI for second Test
Rory Burns, Keaton Jennings, Ben Stokes, Joe Root (c), Jos Buttler, Moeen Ali, Ben Foakes (wk), Sam Curran, Adil Rashid, Jack Leach, James Anderson
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clinicy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Prince%20Mohammed%20Bin%20Abdulrahman%2C%20Abdullah%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%20and%20Saud%20bin%20Sulaiman%20Alobaid%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Riyadh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2025%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%20raised%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20More%20than%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Middle%20East%20Venture%20Partners%2C%20Gate%20Capital%2C%20Kafou%20Group%20and%20Fadeed%20Investment%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%205%2C%201994%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jeff%20Bezos%20founds%20Cadabra%20Inc%2C%20which%20would%20later%20be%20renamed%20to%20Amazon.com%2C%20because%20his%20lawyer%20misheard%20the%20name%20as%20'cadaver'.%20In%20its%20earliest%20days%2C%20the%20bookstore%20operated%20out%20of%20a%20rented%20garage%20in%20Bellevue%2C%20Washington%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%2016%2C%201995%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20formally%20opens%20as%20an%20online%20bookseller.%20%3Cem%3EFluid%20Concepts%20and%20Creative%20Analogies%3A%20Computer%20Models%20of%20the%20Fundamental%20Mechanisms%20of%20Thought%3C%2Fem%3E%20becomes%20the%20first%20item%20sold%20on%20Amazon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1997%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20goes%20public%20at%20%2418%20a%20share%2C%20which%20has%20grown%20about%201%2C000%20per%20cent%20at%20present.%20Its%20highest%20closing%20price%20was%20%24197.85%20on%20June%2027%2C%202024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1998%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20IMDb%2C%20its%20first%20major%20acquisition.%20It%20also%20starts%20selling%20CDs%20and%20DVDs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2000%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Marketplace%20opens%2C%20allowing%20people%20to%20sell%20items%20on%20the%20website%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2002%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20forms%20what%20would%20become%20Amazon%20Web%20Services%2C%20opening%20the%20Amazon.com%20platform%20to%20all%20developers.%20The%20cloud%20unit%20would%20follow%20in%202006%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2003%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20turns%20in%20an%20annual%20profit%20of%20%2475%20million%2C%20the%20first%20time%20it%20ended%20a%20year%20in%20the%20black%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2005%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Prime%20is%20introduced%2C%20its%20first-ever%20subscription%20service%20that%20offered%20US%20customers%20free%20two-day%20shipping%20for%20%2479%20a%20year%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2006%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Unbox%20is%20unveiled%2C%20the%20company's%20video%20service%20that%20would%20later%20morph%20into%20Amazon%20Instant%20Video%20and%2C%20ultimately%2C%20Amazon%20Video%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2007%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20first%20hardware%20product%2C%20the%20Kindle%20e-reader%2C%20is%20introduced%3B%20the%20Fire%20TV%20and%20Fire%20Phone%20would%20come%20in%202014.%20Grocery%20service%20Amazon%20Fresh%20is%20also%20started%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2009%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20introduces%20Amazon%20Basics%2C%20its%20in-house%20label%20for%20a%20variety%20of%20products%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2010%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20foundations%20for%20Amazon%20Studios%20were%20laid.%20Its%20first%20original%20streaming%20content%20debuted%20in%202013%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2011%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Appstore%20for%20Google's%20Android%20is%20launched.%20It%20is%20still%20unavailable%20on%20Apple's%20iOS%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2014%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Echo%20is%20launched%2C%20a%20speaker%20that%20acts%20as%20a%20personal%20digital%20assistant%20powered%20by%20Alexa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2017%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20Whole%20Foods%20for%20%2413.7%20billion%2C%20its%20biggest%20acquisition%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2018%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20market%20cap%20briefly%20crosses%20the%20%241%20trillion%20mark%2C%20making%20it%2C%20at%20the%20time%2C%20only%20the%20third%20company%20to%20achieve%20that%20milestone%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Multitasking pays off for money goals
Tackling money goals one at a time cost financial literacy expert Barbara O'Neill at least $1 million.
That's how much Ms O'Neill, a distinguished professor at Rutgers University in the US, figures she lost by starting saving for retirement only after she had created an emergency fund, bought a car with cash and purchased a home.
"I tell students that eventually, 30 years later, I hit the million-dollar mark, but I could've had $2 million," Ms O'Neill says.
Too often, financial experts say, people want to attack their money goals one at a time: "As soon as I pay off my credit card debt, then I'll start saving for a home," or, "As soon as I pay off my student loan debt, then I'll start saving for retirement"."
People do not realise how costly the words "as soon as" can be. Paying off debt is a worthy goal, but it should not come at the expense of other goals, particularly saving for retirement. The sooner money is contributed, the longer it can benefit from compounded returns. Compounded returns are when your investment gains earn their own gains, which can dramatically increase your balances over time.
"By putting off saving for the future, you are really inhibiting yourself from benefiting from that wonderful magic," says Kimberly Zimmerman Rand , an accredited financial counsellor and principal at Dragonfly Financial Solutions in Boston. "If you can start saving today ... you are going to have a lot more five years from now than if you decide to pay off debt for three years and start saving in year four."
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Virat Kohli (captain), Murali Vijay, Lokesh Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Rohit Sharma, Ajinkya Rahane, Hardik Pandya, Dinesh Karthik (wkt), Ravichandran Ashwin, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
THE SPECS
Jaguar F-Pace SVR
Engine: 5-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 680Nm
Price: Dh465,071
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The biog
Nickname: Mama Nadia to children, staff and parents
Education: Bachelors degree in English Literature with Social work from UAE University
As a child: Kept sweets on the window sill for workers, set aside money to pay for education of needy families
Holidays: Spends most of her days off at Senses often with her family who describe the centre as part of their life too
First Person
Richard Flanagan
Chatto & Windus
More on Palestine-Israeli relations
MATCH INFO
Who: UAE v USA
What: first T20 international
When: Friday, 2pm
Where: ICC Academy in Dubai
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
